debt) and stock returns, provided some warning of a slowdown in economic growth, although the predicted growth was still positive and these indicators fell short of providing a signal of an upcoming recession. Other, previously reliable leading indicators, such as housing starts and orders for capital goods,

PDF | On Jul 14, 2015, Antonio Garcia-Ferrer and others published Forecasting with economic leading indicators | Find, read and cite all the research you need  composite leading indicator (CLI) in terms of predictive accuracy and Stock and Watson's (1989, 1991) methodology on the factor-based model and, more  12 May 2014 Economic indicators, Business cycle indicators, GDP growth, Stock and Watson (1999) argue that new unemployment claims lead the  New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators, Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). NBER macroeconomics annual, 4, 351-394. The Leading and  Watson (1989) approach as well as the latest Stock and Watson mon cycle for each series according to their lead/lag. Allowing for shifts, the model can now.

J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson: Leading Indicator Forecasts. 73. Figure 1 Coincident Indicators establish its business cycle chronology (Hall 2002).

The recession index accurately predicts periods of economic contraction. Keywords: Recession, Coincident and Leading Indicators, Stock and Watson method,  success of leading indicators in forecasting in Diebold and Rudebusch (1991b) and Stock and Watson. (1992). These authors show the marked deterioration in  Keywords: Business Cycle, Composite Leading Indicator, Leading Indicators, Lagging Stock and Watson's methodology is based on existence of shared  leading indicators, developed in Stock and Watson. (1989), appears to perform better than the Commerce. Department's index of leading economic indicators. In. We present two composite coincident and leading indicators designed to capture the methods of diffusion index forecast (Stock and Watson, 2002) and the  Sims ar- gued that because of abnormal events in the 1970s, Stock and Watson's index overemphasized interest rates, which affected estimates for the whole 

New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators, Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). NBER macroeconomics annual, 4, 351-394. The Leading and 

19 Jun 2004 Stock, James H. and Watson, Mark W., New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators (April 1990). NBER Working Paper No. Stock J, Watson M. New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. 1989 :351-393. Keywords: Coincident index, leading index, Kalman filter, dynamic single factor model, predictive least Leading indexes using the Stock/Watson approach.

James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Other examples of leading indicators include momentum or volume oscillators. These indicators focus on the principle that momentum or volume changes ahead of price itself. Some additional leading technical indicators include the relative strength index (RSI) or volume, which is more easily recognizable. Leading Indicator Definition. Leading indicators are set of statistics about economic activities that help in macro-economic forecasts of the economy and emerging stages of business cycles across the industry by acting as a variable with economic linkage providing information about early signs of turning points in business cycles which precedes the coincident and lagging indicators. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience, James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson. in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, Stock and Watson. 1993 Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:

debt) and stock returns, provided some warning of a slowdown in economic growth, although the predicted growth was still positive and these indicators fell short of providing a signal of an upcoming recession. Other, previously reliable leading indicators, such as housing starts and orders for capital goods,

352 " STOCK & WATSON nomic indicators (LEI), and a Recession Index. The experimental CEI closely tracks the coincident index currently produced by the Depart-ment of Commerce (DOC), although the methodology used to produce the two series differs substantially. The growth of the experimental CEI

The recession index accurately predicts periods of economic contraction. Keywords: Recession, Coincident and Leading Indicators, Stock and Watson method,  success of leading indicators in forecasting in Diebold and Rudebusch (1991b) and Stock and Watson. (1992). These authors show the marked deterioration in  Keywords: Business Cycle, Composite Leading Indicator, Leading Indicators, Lagging Stock and Watson's methodology is based on existence of shared